Home prices up modestly, with bigger gains in the forecast
CoreLogic’s home price report for March found that prices in the U.S. increased 3.1% annually, though gains (and losses) varied across the country.
Key points:
- Miami posted the strongest growth, with prices jumping 14.8%.
- The biggest declines were seen in Washington state, where prices dropped 7.4%.
- CoreLogic is forecasting a 4.6% price increase for the coming year across the U.S.
While slowing significantly, home prices were still rising nationally at the start of the spring homebuying season.
CoreLogic estimates U.S. home prices grew 3.1% in March, the lowest year-over-year increase since the spring of 2012. Prices declined in 10 states, mostly in the West region. Washington (-7.4%), Idaho (-3.6%), Nevada (-3.5%) posted the biggest price drops.
Among metro areas, cities seeing some of the bigger price drops included Las Vegas (down 3%) and Phoenix (down 2%).
But other markets, particularly in regions located east of the Mississippi, are continuing to see strong price growth. The states with the highest annual gains were Vermont (9.9%), Indiana (9.2%) and Florida (8.9%), which also had the highest-gaining metros. Of the 20 cities analyzed, Miami topped the list at 14.8%, followed by Tampa at 6.9%. Florida has been a top destination for movers, and has the second-most valuable housing market, according to a report released by Zillow in March.
Although some areas saw significant declines in March, most large metros appeared to turn a corner between February and March, said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. Home prices overall rose 1.6% during that period.
"The monthly rebound in home prices underscores the lack of inventory in this housing cycle," Hepp said. "In addition, while the lack of affordability generally weighs on home price growth, mobility resulting from remote working conditions appears to be a current driver of home prices in some areas of the country."
Because of this low inventory and steady demand, CoreLogic is forecasting prices to rise 4.6% between March 2023 and March 2024. The markets most at risk for a decline, according to the report, are Provo, Utah; Boise, Idaho — which also saw some of the biggest price drops in 2022 — and Lakeland, Florida.