No big mortgage rate shifts expected after mixed jobs report
The U.S. lost 105,000 jobs in October but added 64,000 in November as unemployment hit the highest mark in over four years, according to the BLS.
December 16, 2025
By the Numbers
Making sense of the data that impacts residential real estate.
- 6 housing market trends to watch in 2026Don’t expect any big shifts next year, but we should see a modest uptick in home sales and slightly lower mortgage rates — and no recession.December 12, 2025
- Pending sales fall — but mortgage rates probably won’tConcerns about inflation, the labor market and the health of the U.S. economy at large could push rates higher in the coming weeks and months, economists warn.December 11, 2025
- The housing market’s ‘next era’ is just around the cornerResearch from Compass’ chief economist points to slow but steady improvement next year, especially if hiring picks up and “shadow inventory” is released.December 11, 2025
More in By the Numbers
- Housing will ‘be a problem,’ Fed chair warns after rate cutA divided Fed worried about inflation and the softening jobs market cut short-term interest rates by 25 basis points on Dec. 10 — the third such cut this year.December 10, 2025
- What to expect from the Fed this week — and in 2026Investors expect the central bank to cut short-term interest rates by 25 basis points — but the Fed’s economic projections could keep mortgage rates sticky.December 8, 2025
- Mortgage rates drift lower ahead of Fed’s December meetingEconomists say the market “widely expects” another rate cut — but the central bank will be making its next decision without key jobs and inflation data.December 4, 2025
- Economists expect ‘a reset’ for housing in 2026, ‘not a rebound’With the U.S. economy at a crossroads, real estate economists have differing home sales forecasts for 2026 — but most expect mortgage rates to continue to drop.December 4, 2025
- Homebuyers have reasons for hope heading into the holidaysThough demand dropped off ahead of Thanksgiving, falling mortgage rates and an uptick in loan applications are good signs for the market’s slow season.November 26, 2025
- New, existing home costs nearly identical — will that last?In Q3 of 2025, there was only a $30 difference in the monthly payments for typical new and existing homes, a new report from Realtor.com suggests.November 25, 2025
- Buyers are stepping up, sellers are pulling backPending sales increased from September to October, but at the same time, delistings jumped as sellers feared taking a loss or settling for a lower price.November 25, 2025
- What Fed officials are saying about a December cutThe BLS won’t be releasing any new inflation or jobs data before the Federal Reserve's final meeting of 2025, leaving FOMC members in the fog.November 24, 2025
- Home sales projections fall in revised 2026 forecastFannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group now expects home sales to rise 7.3% in 2026 — a downward revision from earlier forecasts published this fall.November 21, 2025
- Strong jobs report casts doubt on third rate cut in 2025A long-awaited jobs report beat expectations, but unemployment also ticked up. Meanwhile, existing home sales have increased as mortgage rates stabilized.November 20, 2025
- One benefit of the slower housing market? Less buyer regretHome maintenance, the costs of necessary household items and the impact of a home purchase on savings topped the list among recent buyers who did have regrets.November 20, 2025
- Most buyer-friendly market in a decade isn’t moving the needleSellers outnumber buyers by 36.8%, according to a new Redfin report, but affordability challenges remain. However, economists say the market may shift in 2026.November 19, 2025
- 2026 could finally be the year home sales reboundNAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is predicting a 14% rise after three years of sluggish sales — but that largely depends on what happens with mortgage rates.November 15, 2025
- Will home sales see a post-shutdown bump?Transactions should pick up as delayed closings are completed, but economic uncertainty may keep demand subdued. Still, purchase applications jumped last week.November 14, 2025
- Closing the homeownership gap for service membersVeterans can afford far fewer homes than they could 10 years ago, but new programs — and savvy agents — can help more veteran buyers get to the closing table.November 11, 2025
- Homeownership still the ‘American Dream’ — but it comes at a costAmericans are putting off marriage, kids and careers until they can afford a home, according to a new report from Coldwell Banker Affiliates.November 10, 2025
- Buyers are ghosting the housing market — here’s whyCheaper loans aren’t enough to get consumers excited about a market shaken by layoffs, missing data and mixed signals.November 6, 2025
- Overpaying investors nudging out buyers in tight marketsInvestors accounted for 10.8% of all buyers in Q2 — and some are driving prices up by paying far above the median purchase price, a Realtor.com report found.November 6, 2025
- 'Great stay' persists as home turnovers sink to 30-year lowThe share of homes changing hands hasn't been this low since the mid-90s, Redfin economists report. The biggest culprit? Mortgage rates.November 3, 2025
- Mortgage rates jump after second Fed cutThis week’s rate adjustment was expected, but the Fed indicated a December cut isn’t guaranteed. Meanwhile, pending sales fell flat despite earlier rate drops.October 30, 2025
