Home price index up more than 5% in November 

Despite a sluggish housing market in 2023, which was greatly impacted by steep borrowing costs, low inventory, record low pending home sales and general economic uncertainty, national home prices continued to climb higher.

According to CoreLogic's latest home price index, single-family home prices increased 5.2% nationally between November 2022 and November 2023. But that growth could slow to just 2.5% by November 2024, CoreLogic researchers predict.

Home prices continue to climb in multiple regions

When narrowing the focus to regional markets, the Northeast, Midwest and South had the strongest price gains in November, which is consistent with previous observations on home price growth. And looking ahead, Zillow has predicted that the Midwest and Southeast would have some of the hottest markets in 2024. 

According to CoreLogic, the metros with the most home price growth in the last year were Miami at 8.3%, San Diego (7.7%), Chicago (6.5%), Boston (6%) and Washington, D.C. (4.9%). Previously hot pandemic markets such as Denver and Houston have seen price growth slow to under 2%. 

Growth has been highest in the Midwest and South thanks to their more affordable housing markets, the report suggests, though affordability remains a major hurdle elsewhere. 

"Home price appreciation continued to push forward in November, despite the new highs in mortgage rates seen over the year," Dr. Selma Hepp, CoreLogic's chief economist said, adding that the prolonged inventory shortage also led to "notable price gains over the course of 2023."

Three states posted double-digit price gains — Rhode Island at 11.6%, Connecticut with 10.6% and New Jersey at 10.5% — and 24 other states had annual home price growth rates above the national average. 

Some markets at risk for home price declines

But just as there were winners, there were also some home price losers in the last year.

According to the report, Idaho, Utah and Washington, D.C., all posted home price declines while markets in Florida dominated the list of metros that could potentially see drops in the next year. CoreLogic predicts a high likelihood of price declines in the greater Palm Bay, West Palm Beach, Tampa and Daytona Beach metros over the next year. 

But those aren't the only regions likely to cool off. Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix and Dallas are currently "overvalued" in CoreLogic's analysis, while the nation's largest cities — New York, Los Angeles and Chicago — are all "normal."

Low inventory and high borrowing rates, while affecting buyers across the U.S., have especially cast a chill on markets in the West.

"In some metro areas, such as those in the Mountain West and the Northwest, higher interest rates are having a greater impact on homebuyers' budgets, which is contributing to a larger seasonal slump," Dr. Hepp said.