More Realtors expect an uptick in buyers this fall
NAR’s latest confidence survey also suggests that buyers gained some leverage this summer, but overall sales were down.
While no one is predicting a massive wave of real estate activity this fall, agents are anticipating at least a slight increase in buyer traffic over the next three months as interest rate cuts — which are expected to begin later in September — could bring mortgage rates down to levels that are more attractive to buyers.
The latest confidence index survey from the National Association of Realtors also noted that a national shift to a neutral or buyers' market is underway, pointing to data showing that 24% of homes sold above the list price in July, down from 29% in June and 35% in July 2023.
The online survey, which ran from Aug. 1-13, included responses from 1,640 Realtors.
Overall market outlook: Most Realtors still aren't feeling enthusiastic about buyer activity, but the numbers are inching up. The August poll found that 16% of respondents expect a year-over-year increase in buyer traffic in the next three months — that's up from 13%, which was the percentage reported in both June and a year prior in July 2023.
The percentage of those who expect seller traffic to increase in the next three months was 17% in July, the same as June. But it reflected a significant bump compared to July 2023, when just 11% of Realtors expected it to rise.
It's worth noting that mortgage rates, which fell to their lowest level in 15 months last week, looked somewhat different a year ago. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeded 7% last August and peaked above 7.75% in the fall.
A slower July: According to the survey, the percentage of properties that sold in less than a month dropped from 74% in July 2023 to 62% in July 2024. The average number of offers dropped from 3 in July 2023 to 2.7 in July 2024.
Less activity in urban areas: The survey pointed to a slight shift in where people are buying homes. Realtors indicated that 89% of buyers purchased a home in a suburban, rural or resort area in July, up from 85% a year ago.
Other indicators remain stable: First-time homebuyers represented 29% of sales in July, which is the same as June and down slightly from a year ago (30%).
Percentage of cash sales (27% in July), distressed sales (1%) and sales of homes intended for vacation use (4%) were all similar to June and July 2023.