How low will the Fed go?
A mixed August jobs report has economists speculating about how deep of an interest rate cut the Federal Reserve might make on Sept. 18.
The August jobs report, which included a mixed bag of data, has many real estate economists thinking that an interest rate is still coming this month — but the size of the cut is up for debate.
Report details: The U.S. added 142,000 jobs last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's generally weaker than expected, but during the same period, the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.2%, and wages rose 3.8% in the past year, which was more than expected.
Wages are now rising faster than inflation, which means consumers have more purchasing power, said Danielle Hale, Realtor.com's chief economist.
What the Federal Reserve is saying: The Fed seems to recognize that it's time to start cutting interest rates, but so far no one is committing to a specific amount.
"Determining the pace of rate cuts and ultimately the total reduction in the policy rate are decisions that lie in the future. As of today, I believe it is important to start the rate cutting process at our next meeting," Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a Sept. 6 speech at the University of Notre Dame.
What this means for mortgage rates: After July's surprisingly weak jobs report, some speculated that not only would interest rate cuts begin in September, the Fed might decide to start with a 50-basis point cut — or more. The August report, however, suggests the job market isn't falling apart, so a deep cut may not be needed, said Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American.
"Had the labor market deteriorated more significantly, it may have triggered the Fed to consider a 50-basis point cut in September," Williamson said, adding that the labor market is softening enough to warrant a 25-basis point cut.
Chen Zhao, who leads the economics team at Redfin, said the futures markets have the odds at 50/50 for a 25- or 50-basis point cut. That could mean the Sept. 18 meeting will start without a telegraphed outcome, "which would be highly unusual for the modern Fed," Zhao said.
Since a 25-point cut was already expected and priced in by investors, if the Fed goes that route, the September cut might not have much impact on the 30-year mortgage, which averaged 6.35% this week.
"The benefit of these rate cut expectations are already appearing on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage," Williamson said.
Following the jobs report, Mortgage News Daily posted a decrease in the daily rate to 6.27%.
Zhao said the Fed will also be looking at next week's inflation data, which could be one last key piece of the economic puzzle as the board considers whether — and how much — to cut rates.