A decade ago, real estate got a warning — did we heed it? 

Editor's note: Our series on The DANGER Report tells the story of a remarkable document, and assesses the accuracy of the "black swan" risks it said to watch out for in the future — which is now.

The events of the past few years have been a shock to the system for residential real estate: Lawsuits that have changed how agents get paid and challenged their value, a frozen housing market, NAR upheaval. Oh, and a global pandemic disrupted … everything.

Who could have seen any of that coming? Well, the readers of The DANGER Report might have.

OK, it didn't predict COVID, but the report did offer some candid insights into what the future might hold for agents, brokers, MLSs, state and local associations, and yes, the National Association of Realtors.

After its publication, it was spotlighted as a "frank and sometimes searing assessment" by national media. And now, nearly a decade after its release, it continues to be influential, shaping conversations about the real estate brokerage business. In 2023, before jurors awarded home sellers nearly $1.8 billion, they heard how The DANGER Report described increasing pressure on commissions and how changing the compensation system could upend the industry.

Strategist and best-selling author Stefan Swanepoel wrote The DANGER Report and continues to be an influential voice in the industry (he also founded Real Estate News). His sequel to the report is coming soon, with a focus on the opportunities ahead.

But before turning our attention to the future, it's helpful to understand what came before.

The biggest threat: Marginal agents

In 2015, Swanepoel interviewed 70 CEOs and other senior executives from across the industry, and combined that with a survey of nearly 8,000 Realtors to produce a 164-page report breaking down the 50 biggest threats to residential real estate.

At that time, the industry faced some challenges, but the waters were relatively calm — presenting an opportunity to consider what stormy seas might lie ahead.

The goal — as laid out in the introductory pages of The DANGER Report — was to provide "a comprehensive report identifying the most significant threats, risks, and black swans facing the real estate industry without judging or discarding them, without placing blame or picking sides and without attempting to solve them."

What emerged as the standout danger? Agent quality. As the report stated: "The real estate industry is saddled with untrained, unethical and/or incompetent agents. This knowledge gap threatens the credibility of the industry."

Others amplified this concern. "I was surprised when I heard that the National Association of Realtors actually published this to the public because it is not pretty," real estate coach Kevin Ward said at the time. "It does not portray real estate agents in the best of light but it is the truth. It does give us some stuff that we can really learn from."

The potential for disruption

The existing compensation structure got significant attention as well, with the report calling out the potential for then-emerging companies including eXp, Redfin and HomeSmart to become dominant national models. 

"The entrepreneurial spirit in residential brokerage is strong. Innovation of the broker/agent relationship, whether by internal or external forces, is just around the corner," the report stated.

Nearly a decade later, eXp founder Glenn Sanford shared a stage with Swanepoel and talked about the "four or five significant copycats to our model," and his plan for growing even bigger than 87,000 agents.

"And if we don't disrupt ourselves internally, and do the work, then we're gonna be where some of the legacy 30- or 40-year-old brands are now, trying to figure out what to do," Sanford added.

Lots of discussion, little action

The DANGER Report was released in May of 2015, and by that fall was described by an NAR magazine for association executives as "widely discussed and debated on social media" and "the focal point of roundtable discussions, membership luncheons, leadership retreats and planning meetings at Realtor associations nationwide."

Beyond the talk, though, what changed? Not enough, some would say.

"We basically had 10 years heads-up" on what the industry is facing today, Swanepoel told executives gathered at the T3 Leadership Summit last April. "Why did you ignore it? Most of you did."

He urged leaders to think differently: "Nothing you are doing is wrong, but it's a prehistoric old way, meaning it's 10, maybe 15 years old. Most of what we do is slightly an old way. Let's find a better way."