For one pandemic boom town, balance is returning
Buyers flooded the Austin market a few years ago, sending home prices sky-high. Now, the market has come back to earth, but affordability is still an issue.
Key points:
- Austin continues to experience a correction after unsustainable home price growth, but the market appears to be stabilizing.
- While prices are down 6.6% year-over-year, declines have done little to offset pandemic-era gains, and prices are still nearly 50% higher than in early 2020.
- Austin Board of Realtors President Kent Redding says the market can’t fully correct itself — policy changes are needed to address affordability woes.
With the pandemic real estate boom well in the rearview mirror, Central Texas homebuyers and sellers are adapting to life in a more balanced market.
The most recent Austin-area housing report from Unlock MLS depicts a market unlike many others across the country: Prices are continuing to drop, pending sales are up and inventory is sitting right around six months.
Austin by the numbers
After spiking in the past year, inventory appears to have stabilized. The Austin metro's active listing count — 12,153 in September — was 11.6% higher than a year ago, but new listings were down 0.1% for the same period.
Prices also fell: The median home price of $425,000, as reported by Unlock, was down 6.6% year-over-year. While that's significant — prices are still rising between 4-6% nationally — it's a small correction relative to home prices that jumped more than 60% between 2020 and 2022, and a sign that the Austin market is softening, but not crashing.
Still, home prices could cool further if demand continues to lag. Despite the jump in pending sales in September, the average days on the market was 79, up 10 days from a year ago and above the national average of 55 days.
Sellers in Austin are still adjusting to the change. The September report indicated the average closing was 92.8% of the list price, down slightly from 93.2% a year ago.
While sellers may be a little disappointed, the pandemic period of rapid price growth was unsustainable, said Clare Knapp, housing economist for Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of Realtors. Buyers flooded the market between 2020 and 2022, exhausting demand and putting the market out of sync with the rest of the country.
Will prices continue to normalize?
Given how hot the Austin market was a few years ago, one might have expected a larger correction, particularly given the healthy amount of supply. But with inventory sitting at the balanced-market level, sellers still have some leverage, which has kept prices stickier.
One factor is the mortgage rate lock-in effect, which is keeping some homeowners from selling, and another is the market hangover following the recent surge in home sales. On average, people stay in their homes for about 12 years, so those pandemic-era buyers are still years away from putting their homes back on the market, Knapp said.
Austin did see a 20.2% jump in pending sales in September as lower mortgage rates provided some spark. But with rates creeping up again and a softer labor market, Knapp expects a slower, balanced market dynamic to continue into next spring unless rates fall sharply before then.
'A lot of hope for the future,' but challenges remain
Austin's market might look balanced on paper, but it's still facing post-boom affordability challenges, said Kent Redding, president of Unlock and ABoR — something that he says needs to be addressed through housing policy changes.
"As election day approaches, it's crucial for Central Texans to support candidates who will prioritize housing affordability, pursue meaningful policy changes to reduce barriers to housing, and help communities take the necessary steps to increase the housing stock to respond to the growth in our rapidly evolving market," Redding said.
And Austin-area real estate agents may have to evolve too.
"What I've observed is that Realtors are just really positive people and have an ability to try to make the most of any situation," Knapp said.
"There's a lot of hope for the future, but there is certainly a recognition that this is perhaps not the market in Austin that they would have wanted."