Agents see a brighter sales outlook ahead
Two new surveys point to increasing optimism despite mortgage rate and election uncertainty, a sign that post-settlement anxiety could be waning.
Key points:
- Real Brokerage said that 64% of agents surveyed are optimistic about the real estate market over the next 12 months.
- A separate report from John Burns showed that nationally, 39% of agents surveyed expect a good market over the next six months.
- Additionally, the number of agents reporting weaker-than-normal sales in their market has fallen dramatically in the last year.
The present and future of residential real estate sales is rapidly evolving, but it's the agents on the front lines who can help industry watchers better understand what's really happening in the trenches.
Two recent surveys shine some light on the issues agents are grappling with and offer an up-close perspective on market conditions.
Most agents optimistic about the year ahead
According to the Real Brokerage, which surveys its agents monthly, overall sentiment increased slightly in September despite growing concerns over mortgage rates and the upcoming election.
The survey of 200+ agents across the U.S. and Canada found that nearly half — 46% — of respondents feel more optimistic about where the real estate market is headed over the next 12 months, while another 18% are "significantly more optimistic." Only 9% are more pessimistic and 2% are significantly more pessimistic. Roughly a quarter — 24% of agents surveyed — said they have a neutral outlook on the coming year.
Those findings represent a turnaround from July, when only 50% of agents expressed optimism and 21% expressed pessimism about the year ahead, perhaps a sign of the anxiety some agents were feeling leading up to the August rule changes.
Consumers influenced by election uncertainty, rising rates
In terms of current events and immediate pressures on the market, a whopping 75% of agents surveyed reported having a client either delay or pause their home purchase or sale until after the election. Only 18% of agents said the election is not impacting their clients' behavior.
And while mortgage rates have quickly moved back up in recent weeks, 46% of Real agents said that rates would need to drop down to between 5-5.5% to "unlock a meaningful increase of sales" — or roughly 10% or more transaction volume. Only 3% of agents said that mortgage rates between 6-6.5% would lead to a big uptick in sales volume.
Fewer agents reporting a weak market
Despite rising rates, a separate survey from John Burns Research and Consulting suggests that agents are feeling more confident in the market.
While 56% of agents surveyed in September reported weaker-than-normal sales in their market, that figure has fallen dramatically from its peak a year ago when 70% of agents reported weak home sales. Additionally, the six-month outlook has improved, with 39% of respondents expecting "good" home sales in the coming months and 48% expecting "fair" sales. While the outlook has dropped from January, when 55% of respondents anticipated good sales, it's greatly improved from a year ago when only 21% of respondents expected good sales over the next six months.
Midwest agents were the most optimistic — nearly half the agents surveyed in that region anticipate a good market over the next six months. Meanwhile, only 30% of agents surveyed in Northern Florida and Northern California anticipate a strong market.