Commissions relatively unchanged following NAR settlement 

Soon after the National Association of Realtors announced its landmark $418 million settlement, headlines cropped up predicting that real estate commissions could soon be "slashed," "gone" or "eliminated." 

But so far, at least, those predictions have not been borne out. There's been little movement in commission rates since industry rule changes took effect — though it may be too early to know if that will remain true over the long term.

A study by AccountTECH found that commission percentages paid to listing agents actually edged up slightly, and those paid to buyer agents declined marginally, in the 60 days following the Aug. 17 policy change deadline. 

Small ups and downs: According to the study, the average commission rate for seller agents was 2.738% at 60 days post-settlement, up slightly from 2.724% for the same period in 2023. For buyer agents, the average was 2.486%, down from last year's 2.541%.

The authors of the study concluded that the small drop in buy-side commissions and the slight uptick for sellers is "likely within the range of normal market variation." 

If the decline in commission fees for buyer agents reflects a trend, however, it could make a noticeable dent in agent pay by next summer — so it's a number "industry watchers should keep tracking" closely, the authors noted. "A continuation of this two-month trend of 0.05% decrease per month would bring commission rates on the buyer side to 2% by June 2025," according to the report, which analyzed data from 625 real estate offices and 17,358 buy-side pending transactions.

Buy-side transactions way down: While commissions only dipped slightly, the study did find a meaningful drop in buy-side transactions, which fell about 10% year-over-year during the 60-day period analyzed. 

The authors were quick to note that factors like mortgage rates, inventory or economic conditions — rather than changes related to the NAR settlement — could be contributing to the decline in transactions, but said it was worth continuing to monitor buy-side transactions. 

Commissions distribution: In terms of raw percentages, the most common commission rate on the buy side was 3%, paid on 5,251 transactions, followed by 2.5% (5,090 transactions) and 2% (4,026 transactions). 

A sizable minority of transactions — more than 1,000 — paid out less than 2% to the buyer agent, while fewer than 500 transactions paid the buyer agent a rate above 3%.

Consistent with brokerage reports: The findings appear to align with what many brokerage CEOs reported to investors during their third-quarter earnings calls. Leaders at Real, Redfin, Compass and Zillow all said they haven't seen a meaningful change in commission fees so far.

"We haven't observed a notable change in commission rate today on the buy side or sell side," said Real President Sharran Srivatsaa. "Our focus has been on preparing agents to handle these changes confidently, and we believe it's working."