‘Unfiltered’: Which real estate companies are winning right now
Watch the conversation with analyst John Campbell as he places bets on Zillow, CoStar and public brokerages — and shares Wall Street’s perspective on the CCP.
NextHome CEO James Dwiggins has emerged as a significant voice on the topics that are shaping the real estate industry: lawsuits, innovation, leadership. But Dwiggins doesn't just answer questions, he asks them of guests on Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered, his podcast with Keith Robinson, NextHome's chief strategic officer.
On a new episode of Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered, Wall Street analyst John Campbell offers a candid take on how publicly traded real estate companies — and the industry as a whole — are faring post-election.
Clear winners? Zillow, Compass, Real. The rest of the pack? It's a mixed bag.
Plus, he explains why "Wall Street is just now paying attention" to Clear Cooperation, and who would benefit if it goes away.
On the presidential election: Campbell thinks the outcome of the election, "from an academic standpoint, feels like a net negative," due to "massive ripple effects" of the Trump administration's proposed tariff policies, which are expected to bump up inflation. Beyond that, "I don't know what Trump means for the housing market. I think he probably does mean higher-for-longer rates."
On the top brokerages:
"Compass is up. A big chunk of that is cost savings. and some of that growth is driven by acquisitions for them. They've done some pretty big land grabs."
Redfin has a "nasty balance sheet," but "I'm still a big fan of Redfin Next. This opens up their recruiting channel in a big way."
RE/MAX "seems to be struggling." The company increased its agent count after seeing a decline the previous quarter, but "a lot of that growth is coming from international agents," which "doesn't really move the needle that much."
eXp, "from an agent count standpoint, they were once like the darling, right?" But now Real has the momentum as eXp focuses on culling unproductive agents and cutting costs. "In this period of difficulty, they've really shown that they've got that they can tighten the belt, you know."
Speaking of Real… "They're just doing everything right," with huge growth in agent count and several "interesting" initiatives.
On Zillow, CoStar and what changes to Clear Cooperation could mean for portals: Zillow "is on better footing than maybe it's ever been," Campbell said. "Net net, I mean, they are handily outpacing the national market. And a lot of this is due to their enhanced market expansion," he noted. In addition to the strength of their core business, Campbell said "they are rocking and rolling in mortgage" and multifamily rentals.
CoStar continues to show strength, and Campbell was especially excited about their acquisition of Matterport. As for their massive investment in Homes.com? "It's almost night and day in the sense that they set a really good foundation, right? They've got the traffic. They've got the content. They got everything they need there. The bad part is they're having trouble selling it." Campbell pointed to the deceleration of bookings — they "crushed it" in the first quarter, but the numbers have fallen sharply since then. "I think [agents] were kind of pitched the product the wrong way."
What about the CCP? It's a topic that has "finally has made its way to the surface" in the investor world given its implications for public brokerages and portals. "I think if it does get eliminated, you could see Homes.com is a very big winner." And Zillow? "They could be a part of that too. But like, at the minimum, if CCP gets eliminated, you will see less inventory on Zillow. And I will say that with 100% certainty, categorically."
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in the Real Estate Insiders podcast belong solely to the podcast creators and guests, and not Real Estate News.