Gary Keller: We’re in a ‘trough,’ but a reset may be coming
In a keynote presentation, the KW co-founder and other leaders discussed what an uncertain economy means for real estate — and what agents need to tell clients.
Key points:
- During KW’s Family Reunion, Keller, Jason Abrams and Jay Papasan discussed how tariffs and other policies could affect the economy at large, and real estate in particular.
- That uncertainty is giving buyers pause. Agents should remind them that there’s “no right time to buy” — instead, “buy real estate and give it time.”
- Home sales are expected to be only slightly better in 2025, but there are opportunities for agents who can solve clients’ problems.
Las Vegas may be known for its 24-hour party vibe, but inside a Mandalay Bay conference room on Tuesday, the atmosphere was all business as attendees of KW's annual Family Reunion got a healthy dose of straight talk (and a few economic lessons).
Even as the overall economy has chugged along at a steady clip over the past few years, the real estate market has been stuck in its own personal recession — but Keller Williams Co-Founder Gary Keller thinks a reset could be coming. Eventually.
During his "state of the housing market" presentation at the Family Reunion event on Feb. 18, Keller discussed tariffs and other economic risks driving change in the market — and how that disruption could ultimately be a good thing.
"Every generation needs its economic event that resets prices on assets that allows them to get in on a lower floor and then ride the next wave," Keller said.
Tariffs, opportunities and a mantra for buyers
Keller, along with Jason Abrams (head of industry and learning) and Jay Papasan (VP of strategic content), spent a significant amount of time talking about tariffs — a big topic in the news and on the minds of sellers and buyers.
Looking at examples from the past, they found that tariffs typically drive up prices, leading to less spending and culminating in an economic slowdown and rising unemployment.
"We couldn't find a time where a blanket tariff brought prices down," said Abrams.
What would a broader economic downturn mean for real estate agents? Potentially more supply, which could in turn put pressure on housing prices and create opportunities for homebuyers, the speakers noted.
For today's buyers, however, that uncertain economic future could be causing concern about buying at the top of the market, leading to weak demand. Reminding clients about the long-term benefits of homeownership is key, said Papasan.
His advice for agents? Tell your buyers this: "Don't wait for the right time to buy real real estate, buy real estate and give it time."
Climbing out of the 'trough' and solving problems
Keller predicts existing home sales will end the year at around 4.2 million — still sluggish, but a slight improvement over 2023 and 2024, which saw just under 4.1 million in sales.
"When you get into a trough like this, it typically takes three to four years to get out of it," Keller said. "My guess is we have at least two more years, this year and next year."
"Guess" is an apt word: Given the raft of policy and organizational changes taking place at the federal level, industry leaders and economists alike have said it's hard to forecast anything with certainty right now.
While remaking the federal government is not unprecedented in American history, it introduces an element of unpredictability — something that makes companies nervous when considering whether to make big investments, Papasan said.
Agents, however, have to focus on "getting through it" — and one of the most important things they can be doing is talking to their clients, Abrams said.
"There's this idea that in times of change, there's a flight to safety. That's actually not the case in our industry," Abrams said.
"It's a flight to whoever can solve the specific problem that somebody is having. The question is, when you look up at your market, what's the specific problem that people are talking about?"