Do private listing networks impact certain buyers — or markets? 

In a hypothetical future where large brokerages keep more listings behind walled gardens, who would be most affected? If private listing networks continue to grow — potentially aided by NAR's new "delayed marketing" policy — the marketplace of homes for sale could become increasingly fragmented. Does that change consumers' perception of available inventory and make the process of buying and selling homes more challenging?

When industry leaders discuss the potential consequences of private networks, they often highlight market transparency, brokerage consolidation and agents' fiduciary responsibility to sellers. But where exactly do prospective homebuyers fit into the picture, and what happens when they have to go to numerous brokers to find their next home?

First-time homebuyers 'in a tough position'

"If [buying a home] becomes more complex or less transparent, then first-time buyers could be the ones who suffer the most," Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst with Realtor.com, told Real Estate News. 

Jones, who recently co-authored a deep dive into the housing supply gap, noted that first-timers already face a number of barriers. "It's really challenging to navigate this market, to afford a home in this market, to save up for a down payment — all of those things are incredibly challenging. So first-time buyers are really in a tough position."

And they look much different today than in past decades. NAR's latest profile of homebuyers, which analyzed purchases made between July 2023 and June 2024, found that the share of first-time buyers dropped to a historic low of just 24% of all buyers, while the median age of those first-timers — now 38 years old — hit a new high. 

If the for-sale market becomes less accessible to prospective buyers, they may just continue to rent, Jones suggested, as "renting is still more affordable than buying in the vast majority of U.S. metros."

Where private networks could have more of an impact

As brokerages scale up their private listing networks, certain markets could be disproportionately affected. 

Compass CEO Robert Reffkin recently noted on social media that the brokerage now has over 20,000 listings on its website "that you cannot find anywhere else," including more than 8,500 "private exclusives" — a jump from the roughly 5,500 private listings the brokerage held just a couple of months prior. 

On a national level, those numbers may not seem particularly high, but in some regions, like the Bay Area, Compass has amassed significant market share. While walking Real Estate News through the brokerage's new client portal in January, Rory Golod, president of growth and communications, highlighted Compass' reach in San Francisco. At the time, Golod explained, Compass agents had roughly 24% of the city's listings, though only 516 were in its Private Exclusives channel. "If you're not working with Compass, you're missing the market," he said.

Compass also maintains a large presence in New York and Boston, and is now a major player in Chicago following its recent acquisition of @properties and Christie's International Real Estate. 

And Keller Williams' largest franchise, KW GO, announced in January that it has $1 billion in private inventory across its territory, largely focused on Texas metros. 

Most private listings end up on the MLS anyway

While private networks may obscure the full inventory of homes for sale, the current housing shortfall is primarily a result of restrictive local zoning that prevents new construction, high borrowing and construction costs, and the mortgage rate lock-in effect, experts suggest.

Despite concern from some in the industry about potential unintended consequences of a push into private listings, most eventually end up on the open market, noted Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.

Looking at data from Bright's coverage area, "the vast majority — nine out of ten listings — that start as private listings or in-offices do end up getting marketed broadly on the MLS," Sturtevant said, adding that private listings only account for about 4% of all listings in the Bright MLS territory, which includes Maryland, Washington, D.C., and parts of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. 

"So all things considered, it's a very small piece at this point."