Could home prices stall — or reverse course — in 2025? 

The uncertainty surrounding the state of the U.S. economy appears to be throwing some cold water on what's been years of strong home price appreciation.

Fannie Mae's expert panel has lowered its 2025 home price growth forecast to 3.4% on a national level. That's down from a forecast of 3.8% made in the previous quarter, and significantly below the 5.8% average price growth seen in 2024.

Fannie Mae's panel also revised its 2026 estimate down from 3.6% to just 3.3% in 2026.

Price growth sluggish so far: Slow growth appears to be the trend at this point in the spring homebuying season. Mike Simonsen, founder of Altos Research, reported in his weekly update that the median pending home sale price this past week was $399,000, up just 2.5% compared to a year ago. 

"Home prices are staying just barely positive," Simonsen noted, posing these questions: "Does the economic and financial turmoil create conditions where home prices have to shift negative? Do we see notable year-over-year home price declines? Do we see measurable monthly declines in home prices?" We might, Simonsen said, based on similar patterns seen in 2022. 

While home price growth has remained just above last year's levels so far, the recent tariff announcements that pushed mortgage rates above 7% could lead to price dips like the ones that followed interest rates spikes in June 2022 and September 2022, according to Simonsen.

On the other hand, if tariffs are pulled back and mortgage rates decline, modest price growth is likely to continue.

"Home prices are already fragile…. But have not gone negative," Simonsen said. "It's what we have our eyes open for."

Negative growth on the rise, especially in Florida: Although home price growth remains positive nationally, more local markets are seeing declines. Based on an analysis of Zillow data, ResiClub found that home prices fell year-over-year in 42 of the 300 largest metro areas in February, up from 31 a month earlier. 

Florida is taking the biggest hit in terms of home price growth — 20 of the 42 U.S. metros that posted annual declines were located in the Sunshine State.

ResiClub found that the Northeast continues to see above-average price growth, with some standout cities like Rochester, New York, seeing 7.5% year-over-year growth.

New listings still strong: A potential slowdown in home price growth hasn't yet slowed the pace of new listings, which were up 10.3% year-over-year in early April, according to Redfin. Researchers suggested that sellers could be looking to cash in on their equity before a possible economic downturn.

Despite the current economic uncertainty, many sellers remain optimistic about their prospects. A recent Realtor.com survey found that 81% of homeowners who are considering listing their home in the next year expect to get at or above their asking price when they sell.