‘Unfiltered’: Betting on Zillow — and a mass exodus of agents?
Watch the conversation with analyst John Campbell on the winners — and “not winners” — among public real estate firms, plus a bold guess about agent attrition.
NextHome CEO James Dwiggins has emerged as a significant voice on the topics that are shaping the real estate industry: lawsuits, innovation, leadership. But Dwiggins doesn't just answer questions, he asks them of guests on Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered, his podcast with Keith Robinson, NextHome's chief strategic officer.
On this week's episode of Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered, Wall Street analyst John Campbell offers his take on how public real estate companies fared during the last quarter, and he's not afraid to name names.
He also makes a prediction about agent attrition in light of the NAR settlement (spoiler: it's a BIG number).
See which portals and brokerages to bet on: Campbell is most bullish about Zillow: "Clear winner. Stock absolutely torched it after earnings." Two factors attributing to Zillow's success, he said, are the company's growing home loans business and its shift from the "legacy model," where agents buy a portion of a ZIP code, to the Flex model: "It's more volatile, but very, very profitable for them."
Other winners? "Redfin is turning it around," Campbell said, noting that their nationwide rollout of Redfin Next — which offers agents a commission split instead of a salary — is "a massively big deal."
Campbell also called out up-and-comer Real Brokerage, which has seen revenue and agent count soar, as "a total breakout story."
"They remind me a lot of eXp a couple of years ago," he added. As for eXp, Campbell put them in the "winner" camp as well, praising CEO Leo Pareja as a leader who "is willing to step out" — unlike others in the industry.
The "not winners," meanwhile, include two of the biggest brokerage firms in the country, and a top home search portal.
So where do agents fit in? Between the still-sluggish market and the post-settlement practice changes, Campbell thinks the agent pool could shrink — a lot: "I hate to say this, but there could be a base case of 50% [attrition]."
That's because "you got half the industry who doesn't do anything. They don't close anything," he added. "They just have a license. … Why would you stick around? Why are you paying your dues?"
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in the Real Estate Insiders podcast belong solely to the podcast creators and guests, and not Real Estate News.