MLS, association execs expect membership declines in 2025
As a weak market and dissatisfaction with NAR drive attrition, more leaders are considering opening MLS access to non-Realtors, a recent survey found.
Key points:
- More than 70% of the association and MLS executives in T3 Sixty’s December poll are baking membership declines into their 2025 budgets.
- Leaders at the local level are feeling “a lot more urgency around some of the brokerage and agent feedback against NAR.”
- A quarter of the executives surveyed are considering offering MLS access to non-Realtors, which could lead to a showdown with NAR.
At the national level, Realtor membership has held fairly steady this year, but associations and MLSs are bracing for more attrition in 2025.
A recent T3 Sixty survey of real estate association and MLS executives found that more than 70% are budgeting for a projected decrease in membership, citing a combination of external and internal factors.
Economic and market pressures — specifically low inventory and high interest rates — are pushing weaker agents out of the market, according to the report, while other agents are voluntarily opting out of membership due to dissatisfaction with NAR and broader industry dynamics.
More than 200 executives responded to the survey, conducted earlier this month. A synopsis of the results is available online. (Note: T3 Sixty and Real Estate News share the same founder, Stephen Swanepoel.)
Most expect membership declines, but not huge losses
The survey revealed a few key themes moving into 2025. For one, fewer agents are signing up for multiple MLS memberships — a trend predicted by Pennsylvania broker and Bright MLS board member Adam Conrad back in July. With offers of compensation no longer in play, Conrad expects smaller MLSs, in particular, will suffer: "There's going to be a point at which it doesn't make sense to belong."
An October survey by WAV Group found a similar sentiment, with 55% of respondents saying they believed MLSs would be less valuable in a post-settlement world.
Despite this perceived reduction in MLS value, most execs in the T3 survey aren't expecting huge membership losses: 65% anticipate declines in the 1-10% range, while just over 7% expect losses of 11-20%. About one in five believe membership levels will remain the same in 2025, and around 7% think they'll gain members in 2025.
But leaders are hedging their bets, budgeting for losses as high as 25% even though most don't expect to see attrition reach that level.
The survey comments suggested a vibe of concern — but not panic — about membership, said Clint Skutchan, SVP of organized real estate at T3 Sixty.
NAR, on the other hand, should be a little more worried, given the number of negative comments related to the national association's handling of the settlement and policy changes. "I just don't know if they understand yet how intense this is in terms of what the locals are having to hear," Skutchan said.
It's those local officers who are collecting the dues, Skutchan noted, so they are feeling "a lot more urgency around some of the brokerage and agent feedback against NAR."
Mandatory membership and MLS access
That dissatisfaction with NAR has led to a wave of pushback against membership. Several lawsuits challenging "mandatory membership" policies are working their way through the courts, and two major brokerages, HomeSmart and Realty ONE, recently announced that some of their agents can opt out of NAR membership in 2025.
A central issue in the membership debate is NAR's three-way agreement, which requires agents who join their local Realtor association to also join state and national associations.
The MLS and association execs surveyed remain largely in favor of the agreement, with more than 70% saying they were "supportive" or "very supportive" of the current system. Only 7% said they were not supportive of the three-way agreement.
Those who support the system cited unity and advocacy work at the state and national level as key factors, with others concerned that the Realtor organization would not survive without all three levels working together.
Still, some leaders are considering more flexible options for their members, who are increasingly asking whether they can be a part of the local association but not NAR.
And more than a quarter of respondents — 26% — said they are considering or are in the process of opening MLS access to non-Realtors. "That's a pretty significant number of folks," Skutchan noted.
But a recent dispute between NAR and Phoenix Realtors over the local association's "MLS Choice" offering — which NAR sees as a threat to the three-way agreement — suggests that the issue of who can access MLS data will be a contentious one in the coming year, particularly if more brokerages allow their agents to leave NAR.
"It could become a tipping point," Skutchan said.